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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Тепатитлан де Морелос vs Club Atletico La Paz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Домакин form
Projected score2–12.61 expected goals
Гост form
Победа за домакина44%
Равен26%
Победа за госта30%
Full model forecastПобеда за домакинаTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда за домакина44% selection probability
Projected score2–1Тепатитлан де МорелосClub Atletico La Paz
Expected goals2.61Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Под52% for the selected side
И двата отбора да отбележатНе52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Над 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketИзборВероятностСправедлив коефициент
44% / 26% / 30%Резултат от мачаПобеда за домакина44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26%)Двоен шанс1274%1.35
Над 48% · Под 52%Goals 2.5Под52%1.92
Да 48% · Не 52%И двата отбора да отбележатНе52%1.92
2.61 total expected goalsТочен резултат2–1
10.1 expected match cornersКорнериНад 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.6%Largest probability gapТепатитлан де Морелос winDifference+1.3 pp
OutcomeПрогнозаСправедлив коефициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Тепатитлан де Морелос win44%2.272.2042.7%+1.3 pp
Равен26%3.853.6026.1%-0.1 pp
Club Atletico La Paz win30%3.333.0031.3%-1.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Тепатитлан де Морелос1.74

Домакин share of expected goals 66.7%

Total expected goals2.61Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Над 48% · Под 52%

Club Atletico La Paz0.87

Гост share of expected goals 33.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitДа 48% · Не 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Домакин-context · form sequence

Тепатитлан де Морелос

1.20pts / match
Изиграни5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Точки6

SignalДомакин failed to score: 2/5

Гост-context · form sequence

Club Atletico La Paz

0.20pts / match
Изиграни5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Точки1

SignalДомакин won 2/3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Печеливш probability excluding draw
30%
6
Points from supplied form
1
1.74
Expected goals
0.87
Тепатитлан де МорелосClub Atletico La Paz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Тепатитлан де Морелос signalДомакин failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Club Atletico La Paz signalДомакин won 2/3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Равен probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Тепатитлан де Морелос vs Club Atletico La Paz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа за домакина · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Тепатитлан де Морелос печеливш 44%,Равен 26%,Club Atletico La Paz печеливш 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.61 · Над 2.5 48% · Current selection Под