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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Atletico Morelia vs ФК Канкун

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Домакин form
Projected score1–12.17 expected goals
Гост form
Победа за домакина50%
Равен27%
Победа за госта23%
Full model forecastПобеда за домакинаTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда за домакина50% selection probability
Projected score1–1Atletico MoreliaФК Канкун
Expected goals2.17Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Под63% for the selected side
И двата отбора да отбележатНе56% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Под 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketИзборВероятностСправедлив коефициент
50% / 27% / 23%Резултат от мачаПобеда за домакина50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes ФК Канкун win (23.1%)Двоен шанс1X76.9%1.30
Над 37% · Под 63%Goals 2.5Под63%1.59
Да 44% · Не 56%И двата отбора да отбележатНе56%1.79
2.17 total expected goalsТочен резултат1–1
9.5 expected match cornersКорнериПод 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.6%Largest probability gapAtletico Morelia winDifference-1.2 pp
OutcomeПрогнозаСправедлив коефициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Atletico Morelia win50%2.001.8551.2%-1.2 pp
Равен27%3.703.6026.3%+0.7 pp
ФК Канкун win23%4.354.2022.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Atletico Morelia1.18

Домакин share of expected goals 54.4%

Total expected goals2.17Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Над 37% · Под 63%

ФК Канкун0.99

Гост share of expected goals 45.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 44% · Не 56%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Домакин-context · form sequence

Atletico Morelia

1.20pts / match
Изиграни5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Точки6

SignalДомакин failed to score: 3/5

Гост-context · form sequence

ФК Канкун

1.00pts / match
Изиграни5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Точки5

SignalГост matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Печеливш probability excluding draw
23%
6
Points from supplied form
5
1.18
Expected goals
0.99
Atletico MoreliaФК Канкун
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Atletico Morelia signalДомакин failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02ФК Канкун signalГост matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Равен probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Atletico Morelia vs ФК Канкун FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа за домакина · Projected score 1–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Atletico Morelia печеливш 50%,Равен 27%,ФК Канкун печеливш 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.17 · Над 2.5 37% · Current selection Под