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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Atletico Morelia vs Cancun FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–12.17 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst50%
Gelijkspel27%
Uitwinst23%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst50% selection probability
Projected score1–1Atletico MoreliaCancun FC
Expected goals2.17Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Onder63% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee56% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
50% / 27% / 23%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Cancun FC win (23.3%)Dubbele Kans1X76.7%1.30
Boven 37% · Onder 63%Goals 2.5Onder63%1.59
Ja 44% · Nee 56%Beide teams scorenNee56%1.79
2.17 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
9.5 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin7.0%Largest probability gapAtletico Morelia winDifference-0.5 pp
OutcomeVoorspellingEerlijke oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Atletico Morelia win50%2.001.8550.5%-0.5 pp
Gelijkspel27%3.703.5026.7%+0.3 pp
Cancun FC win23%4.354.1022.8%+0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Atletico Morelia1.18

Thuis share of expected goals 54.4%

Total expected goals2.17Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Boven 37% · Onder 63%

Cancun FC0.99

Uit share of expected goals 45.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 44% · Nee 56%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Atletico Morelia

1.20pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punten6

SignalThuis failed to score: 3/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Cancun FC

1.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punten5

SignalUit matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
23%
6
Points from supplied form
5
1.18
Expected goals
0.99
Atletico MoreliaCancun FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Atletico Morelia signalThuis failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Cancun FC signalUit matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Atletico Morelia vs Cancun FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 1–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Atletico Morelia gewonnen 50%,Gelijkspel 27%,Cancun FC gewonnen 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.17 · Boven 2.5 37% · Current selection Onder