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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Atletico Morelia vs Cancun FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–12.17 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa50%
Pareggio27%
Vittoria ospite23%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa50% selection probability
Projected score1–1Atletico MoreliaCancun FC
Expected goals2.17Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto63% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo56% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
50% / 27% / 23%Esito partitaVittoria casa50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Cancun FC win (23.1%)Doppia Chance1X76.9%1.30
Sopra 37% · Sotto 63%Goals 2.5Sotto63%1.59
Sì 44% · No 56%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo56%1.79
2.17 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
9.5 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.6%Largest probability gapAtletico Morelia winDifference-1.2 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Atletico Morelia win50%2.001.8551.2%-1.2 pp
Pareggio27%3.703.6026.3%+0.7 pp
Cancun FC win23%4.354.2022.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Atletico Morelia1.18

Casa share of expected goals 54.4%

Total expected goals2.17Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 37% · Sotto 63%

Cancun FC0.99

Trasferta share of expected goals 45.6%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 44% · No 56%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Atletico Morelia

1.20pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punti6

SignalCasa failed to score: 3/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Cancun FC

1.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punti5

SignalTrasferta matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Vinta probability excluding draw
23%
6
Points from supplied form
5
1.18
Expected goals
0.99
Atletico MoreliaCancun FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Atletico Morelia signalCasa failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Cancun FC signalTrasferta matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Atletico Morelia vs Cancun FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Atletico Morelia vinta 50%,Pareggio 27%,Cancun FC vinta 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.17 · Sopra 2.5 37% · Current selection Sotto