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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Club Atletico La Paz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Chủ nhà form
Projected score2–12.61 expected goals
Khách form
Chủ nhà thắng44%
Hòa26%
Đội khách thắng30%
Full model forecastChủ nhà thắngTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callChủ nhà thắng44% selection probability
Projected score2–1Tepatitlan de MorelosClub Atletico La Paz
Expected goals2.61Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Xỉu52% for the selected side
Cả hai đội ghi bànKhông52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Tài 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketLựa chọnXác suấtTỷ lệ công bằng
44% / 26% / 30%Kết quả trận đấuChủ nhà thắng44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26%)Cơ hội kép1274%1.35
Tài 48% · Xỉu 52%Goals 2.5Xỉu52%1.92
Có 48% · Không 52%Cả hai đội ghi bànKhông52%1.92
2.61 total expected goalsTỷ số chính xác2–1
10.1 expected match cornersPhạt gócTài 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.6%Largest probability gapTepatitlan de Morelos winDifference+1.3 pp
OutcomeDự đoánTỷ lệ công bằngReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Tepatitlan de Morelos win44%2.272.2042.7%+1.3 pp
Hòa26%3.853.6026.1%-0.1 pp
Club Atletico La Paz win30%3.333.0031.3%-1.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Tepatitlan de Morelos1.74

Chủ nhà share of expected goals 66.7%

Total expected goals2.61Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Tài 48% · Xỉu 52%

Club Atletico La Paz0.87

Khách share of expected goals 33.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 48% · Không 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Chủ nhà-context · form sequence

Tepatitlan de Morelos

1.20pts / match
Số trận5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Điểm6

SignalChủ nhà failed to score: 2/5

Khách-context · form sequence

Club Atletico La Paz

0.20pts / match
Số trận5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Điểm1

SignalChủ nhà won 2/3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Thắng probability excluding draw
30%
6
Points from supplied form
1
1.74
Expected goals
0.87
Tepatitlan de MorelosClub Atletico La Paz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Tepatitlan de Morelos signalChủ nhà failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Club Atletico La Paz signalChủ nhà won 2/3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Hòa probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Club Atletico La Paz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Chủ nhà thắng · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Tepatitlan de Morelos thắng 44%,Hòa 26%,Club Atletico La Paz thắng 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.61 · Tài 2.5 48% · Current selection Xỉu