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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Тепатитлан де Морелос vs Club Atletico La Paz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score2–12.61 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев45%
Ничья26%
Победа гостей29%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев45% selection probability
Projected score2–1Тепатитлан де МорелосClub Atletico La Paz
Expected goals2.61Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше52% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Больше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
45% / 26% / 29%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26%)Двойной шанс1274%1.35
Больше 48% · Меньше 52%Goals 2.5Меньше52%1.92
Да 48% · Нет 52%Обе забьютНет52%1.92
2.61 total expected goalsТочный счёт2–1
10.1 expected match cornersУгловыеБольше 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.5%Largest probability gapТепатитлан де Морелос winDifference+1.3 pp
OutcomeПрогнозСправедливый коэффициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Тепатитлан де Морелос win45%2.222.1543.7%+1.3 pp
Ничья26%3.853.6026.1%-0.1 pp
Club Atletico La Paz win29%3.453.1030.3%-1.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Тепатитлан де Морелос1.74

Хозяева share of expected goals 66.7%

Total expected goals2.61Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Больше 48% · Меньше 52%

Club Atletico La Paz0.87

Гости share of expected goals 33.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitДа 48% · Нет 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Тепатитлан де Морелос

1.20pts / match
Сыграно5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Баллы6

SignalХозяева failed to score: 2/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Club Atletico La Paz

0.20pts / match
Сыграно5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Баллы1

SignalХозяева won 2/3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
29%
6
Points from supplied form
1
1.74
Expected goals
0.87
Тепатитлан де МорелосClub Atletico La Paz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Тепатитлан де Морелос signalХозяева failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Club Atletico La Paz signalХозяева won 2/3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Тепатитлан де Морелос vs Club Atletico La Paz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Тепатитлан де Морелос выигрыш 45%,Ничья 26%,Club Atletico La Paz выигрыш 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.61 · ТБ 2.5 48% · Current selection Меньше