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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Club Atletico La Paz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score2–12.61 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa45%
Empate26%
Vitória visitante29%
Full model forecastVitória da casaTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória da casa45% selection probability
Projected score2–1Tepatitlán de MorelosClub Atletico La Paz
Expected goals2.61Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Abaixo52% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamNão52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Acima 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
45% / 26% / 29%Resultado da partidaVitória da casa45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26%)Dupla Chance1274%1.35
Acima 48% · Abaixo 52%Goals 2.5Abaixo52%1.92
Sim 48% · Não 52%Ambas as equipes marcamNão52%1.92
2.61 total expected goalsPlacar exato2–1
10.1 expected match cornersEscanteiosAcima 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.5%Largest probability gapTepatitlán de Morelos winDifference+1.3 pp
OutcomePrevisãoOdds justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Tepatitlán de Morelos win45%2.222.1543.7%+1.3 pp
Empate26%3.853.6026.1%-0.1 pp
Club Atletico La Paz win29%3.453.1030.3%-1.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Tepatitlán de Morelos1.74

Mandante share of expected goals 66.7%

Total expected goals2.61Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Acima 48% · Abaixo 52%

Club Atletico La Paz0.87

Visitante share of expected goals 33.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitSim 48% · Não 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

Tepatitlán de Morelos

1.20pts / match
Jogos5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Pontos6

SignalMandante failed to score: 2/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Club Atletico La Paz

0.20pts / match
Jogos5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Pontos1

SignalMandante won 2/3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
29%
6
Points from supplied form
1
1.74
Expected goals
0.87
Tepatitlán de MorelosClub Atletico La Paz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Tepatitlán de Morelos signalMandante failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Club Atletico La Paz signalMandante won 2/3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Club Atletico La Paz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória da casa · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Tepatitlán de Morelos ganhou 45%,Empate 26%,Club Atletico La Paz ganhou 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.61 · Acima 2.5 48% · Current selection Abaixo