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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Club Atletico La Paz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–12.61 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile44%
Nul26%
Victoire à l’extérieur30%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile44% selection probability
Projected score2–1Tepatitlan de MorelosClub Atletico La Paz
Expected goals2.61Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de52% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Plus de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
44% / 26% / 30%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26%)Double chance1274%1.35
Plus de 48% · Moins de 52%Goals 2.5Moins de52%1.92
Oui 48% · Non 52%Les deux équipes marquentNon52%1.92
2.61 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
10.1 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.6%Largest probability gapTepatitlan de Morelos winDifference+1.3 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Tepatitlan de Morelos win44%2.272.2042.7%+1.3 pp
Nul26%3.853.6026.1%-0.1 pp
Club Atletico La Paz win30%3.333.0031.3%-1.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Tepatitlan de Morelos1.74

Domicile share of expected goals 66.7%

Total expected goals2.61Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 48% · Moins de 52%

Club Atletico La Paz0.87

Extérieur share of expected goals 33.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 48% · Non 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Tepatitlan de Morelos

1.20pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Club Atletico La Paz

0.20pts / match
Joués5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Points1

SignalDomicile won 2/3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Gagné probability excluding draw
30%
6
Points from supplied form
1
1.74
Expected goals
0.87
Tepatitlan de MorelosClub Atletico La Paz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Tepatitlan de Morelos signalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Club Atletico La Paz signalDomicile won 2/3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Club Atletico La Paz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Tepatitlan de Morelos victoire 44%,Nul 26%,Club Atletico La Paz victoire 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.61 · Plus de 2.5 48% · Current selection Moins de