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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Club Atletico La Paz

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.61 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger44%
Oavgjort26%
Bortaseger30%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger44% selection probability
Projected score2–1Tepatitlan de MorelosClub Atletico La Paz
Expected goals2.61Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under52% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
44% / 26% / 30%MatchresultatHemmaseger44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26%)Dubbelchans1274%1.35
Över 48% · Under 52%Goals 2.5Under52%1.92
Ja 48% · Nej 52%Båda lagen gör målNej52%1.92
2.61 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.1 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.6%Largest probability gapTepatitlan de Morelos winDifference+1.3 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Tepatitlan de Morelos win44%2.272.2042.7%+1.3 pp
Oavgjort26%3.853.6026.1%-0.1 pp
Club Atletico La Paz win30%3.333.0031.3%-1.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Tepatitlan de Morelos1.74

Hemma share of expected goals 66.7%

Total expected goals2.61Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 48% · Under 52%

Club Atletico La Paz0.87

Borta share of expected goals 33.3%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 48% · Nej 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Tepatitlan de Morelos

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poäng6

SignalHemma failed to score: 2/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Club Atletico La Paz

0.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Poäng1

SignalHemma won 2/3 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
30%
6
Points from supplied form
1
1.74
Expected goals
0.87
Tepatitlan de MorelosClub Atletico La Paz
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Tepatitlan de Morelos signalHemma failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Club Atletico La Paz signalHemma won 2/3 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Club Atletico La Paz FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Tepatitlan de Morelos vunnen 44%,Oavgjort 26%,Club Atletico La Paz vunnen 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.61 · Över 2.5 48% · Current selection Under