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POL Poland I Liga · Match ·

Polonia Bytom vs Pogon Siedlce

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.52 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger54%
Oavgjort25%
Bortaseger21%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger54% selection probability
Projected score2–1Polonia BytomPogon Siedlce
Expected goals2.52Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under54% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej51% for the selected side
Expected corners10.9Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
54% / 25% / 21%MatchresultatHemmaseger54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Pogon Siedlce win (20.9%)Dubbelchans1X79.1%1.26
Över 46% · Under 54%Goals 2.5Under54%1.85
Ja 49% · Nej 51%Båda lagen gör målNej51%1.96
2.52 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.9 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapPolonia Bytom winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Polonia Bytom win54%1.851.6554.4%-0.4 pp
Oavgjort25%4.003.6024.9%+0.1 pp
Pogon Siedlce win21%4.764.3320.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Polonia Bytom1.56

Hemma share of expected goals 61.9%

Total expected goals2.52Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 46% · Under 54%

Pogon Siedlce0.96

Borta share of expected goals 38.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 49% · Nej 51%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Polonia Bytom

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poäng6

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 5/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Pogon Siedlce

0.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Poäng2

SignalBorta matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
54%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
21%
6
Points from supplied form
2
1.56
Expected goals
0.96
Polonia BytomPogon Siedlce
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Polonia Bytom signalHemma matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Pogon Siedlce signalBorta matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Polonia Bytom vs Pogon Siedlce FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Polonia Bytom vunnen 54%,Oavgjort 25%,Pogon Siedlce vunnen 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.52 · Över 2.5 46% · Current selection Under