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POL Poland I Liga · Kamp ·

Polonia Bytom vs Pogon Siedlce

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.52 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier54%
Uavgjort25%
Borteseier21%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier54% selection probability
Projected score2–1Polonia BytomPogon Siedlce
Expected goals2.52Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under54% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei51% for the selected side
Expected corners10.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
54% / 25% / 21%KampresultatHjemmeseier54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Pogon Siedlce win (20.9%)Dobbel sjanse1X79.1%1.26
Over 46% · Under 54%Goals 2.5Under54%1.85
Ja 49% · Nei 51%Begge lag scorerNei51%1.96
2.52 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
10.9 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapPolonia Bytom winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Polonia Bytom win54%1.851.6554.4%-0.4 pp
Uavgjort25%4.003.6024.9%+0.1 pp
Pogon Siedlce win21%4.764.3320.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Polonia Bytom1.56

Hjemme share of expected goals 61.9%

Total expected goals2.52Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 46% · Under 54%

Pogon Siedlce0.96

Borte share of expected goals 38.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 49% · Nei 51%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Polonia Bytom

1.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poeng6

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 5/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Pogon Siedlce

0.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Poeng2

SignalBorte matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
54%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
21%
6
Points from supplied form
2
1.56
Expected goals
0.96
Polonia BytomPogon Siedlce
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Polonia Bytom signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Pogon Siedlce signalBorte matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Polonia Bytom vs Pogon Siedlce FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Polonia Bytom vunnet 54%,Uavgjort 25%,Pogon Siedlce vunnet 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.52 · Over 2.5 46% · Current selection Under