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POL Poland I Liga · Mecz ·

Polonia Bytom vs MKP Pogoń Siedlce

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score2–12.52 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy54%
Remis25%
Wygrana gości21%
Full model forecastWygrana gospodarzyTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gospodarzy54% selection probability
Projected score2–1Polonia BytomMKP Pogoń Siedlce
Expected goals2.52Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Poniżej54% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląNie51% for the selected side
Expected corners10.9Powyżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
54% / 25% / 21%Wynik meczuWygrana gospodarzy54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes MKP Pogoń Siedlce win (20.9%)Podwójna szansa1X79.1%1.26
Powyżej 46% · Poniżej 54%Goals 2.5Poniżej54%1.85
Tak 49% · Nie 51%Obie drużyny strzeląNie51%1.96
2.52 total expected goalsDokładny wynik2–1
10.9 expected match cornersRożnePowyżej 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.5%Largest probability gapPolonia Bytom winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePrognozaUczciwy kursReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Polonia Bytom win54%1.851.6554.4%-0.4 pp
Remis25%4.003.6024.9%+0.1 pp
MKP Pogoń Siedlce win21%4.764.3320.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Polonia Bytom1.56

Gospodarze share of expected goals 61.9%

Total expected goals2.52Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 46% · Poniżej 54%

MKP Pogoń Siedlce0.96

Goście share of expected goals 38.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitTak 49% · Nie 51%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Polonia Bytom

1.20pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punkty6

SignalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 5/5

Goście-context · form sequence

MKP Pogoń Siedlce

0.40pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Punkty2

SignalGoście matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
54%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
21%
6
Points from supplied form
2
1.56
Expected goals
0.96
Polonia BytomMKP Pogoń Siedlce
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Polonia Bytom signalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02MKP Pogoń Siedlce signalGoście matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Polonia Bytom vs MKP Pogoń Siedlce FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gospodarzy · Projected score 2–1 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Polonia Bytom wygrana 54%,Remis 25%,MKP Pogoń Siedlce wygrana 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.52 · Powyżej 2.5 46% · Current selection Poniżej