Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
45% / 27% / 28%Match resultHome win45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.4%)Double chance1272.6%1.38
Over 55% · Under 45%Goals 2.5Over55%1.82
Yes 57% · No 43%Both teams scoreYes57%1.75
2.90 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1——
9.4 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5——
Probability view
Forecast probabilities and fair odds
No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.
OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Caernarfon win45%2.22
Draw27%3.70
Penybont win28%3.57
Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 60%
Total expected goals2.90Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Over 55% · Under 45%
Away share of expected goals 40%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 57% · No 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.40pts / matchCaernarfon
WWWWL
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12
SignalHome unbeaten 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.00pts / matchPenybont
DWDLL
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
45%
Win probability excluding draw
28%12
Points from supplied form
51.74
Expected goals
1.16CaernarfonPenybont
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.
Match questions
Caernarfon vs Penybont FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Caernarfon win 45%，Draw 27%，Penybont win 28%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.90 · Over 2.5 55% · Current selection Over。