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WAL Wales - Premier League · Final ·

Caernarfon vs Penybont

Prediction review

Hjemme form
Final score1–2Prognose 2–1
Ude form
Hjemmesejr47%
Uafgjort26%
Udesejr27%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 47% selection probability
Prediction Tabt
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr47% selection probability
Projected score2–1CaernarfonPenybont
Expected goals2.90Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over55% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
47% / 26% / 27%KampresultatHjemmesejr47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.1%)Dobbeltchance1273.9%1.35
Over 55% · Under 45%Goals 2.5Over55%1.82
Ja 57% · Nej 43%Begge hold scorerJa57%1.75
2.90 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.4 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.1%Largest probability gapCaernarfon winDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Caernarfon win47%2.131.9146.7%+0.3 pp
Uafgjort26%3.853.4026.2%-0.2 pp
Penybont win27%3.703.3027%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Caernarfon1.74

Hjemme share of expected goals 60%

Total expected goals2.90Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 55% · Under 45%

Penybont1.16

Ude share of expected goals 40%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 57% · Nej 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Caernarfon

2.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Point12

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Penybont

1.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Point5

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
47%
Vundet probability excluding draw
27%
12
Points from supplied form
5
1.74
Expected goals
1.16
CaernarfonPenybont
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Caernarfon signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Penybont signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk53% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Caernarfon vs Penybont FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 2–1 · 47% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Caernarfon vundet 47%,Uafgjort 26%,Penybont vundet 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.90 · Over 2.5 55% · Current selection Over