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WAL Ουαλία - Πρέμιερ Λιγκ · Αγώνας ·

Καερναρφόν vs Πένιμποντ

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Γηπεδούχος form
Projected score2–12.90 expected goals
Φιλοξενούμενος form
Νίκη γηπεδούχου45%
Ισοπαλία27%
Νίκη φιλοξενούμενου28%
Full model forecastΝίκη γηπεδούχουTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callΝίκη γηπεδούχου45% selection probability
Projected score2–1ΚαερναρφόνΠένιμποντ
Expected goals2.90Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Άνω55% for the selected side
Σκοράρουν και οι δύοΝαι57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Κάτω 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketΕπιλογήΠιθανότηταΔίκαιη απόδοση
45% / 27% / 28%Αποτέλεσμα αγώναΝίκη γηπεδούχου45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.4%)Διπλή Ευκαιρία1272.6%1.38
Άνω 55% · Κάτω 45%Goals 2.5Άνω55%1.82
Ναι 57% · Όχι 43%Σκοράρουν και οι δύοΝαι57%1.75
2.90 total expected goalsΑκριβές σκορ2–1
9.4 expected match cornersΚόρνερΚάτω 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Όχι snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityΔίκαιη απόδοση
Καερναρφόν win45%2.22
Ισοπαλία27%3.70
Πένιμποντ win28%3.57

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Καερναρφόν1.74

Γηπεδούχος share of expected goals 60%

Total expected goals2.90Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Άνω 55% · Κάτω 45%

Πένιμποντ1.16

Φιλοξενούμενος share of expected goals 40%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitΝαι 57% · Όχι 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Γηπεδούχος-context · form sequence

Καερναρφόν

2.40pts / match
Αγώνες5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Πόντοι12

SignalΓηπεδούχος unbeaten 4/5

Φιλοξενούμενος-context · form sequence

Πένιμποντ

1.00pts / match
Αγώνες5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Πόντοι5

SignalΓηπεδούχος matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Νίκη probability excluding draw
28%
12
Points from supplied form
5
1.74
Expected goals
1.16
ΚαερναρφόνΠένιμποντ
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Καερναρφόν signalΓηπεδούχος unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Πένιμποντ signalΓηπεδούχος matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ισοπαλία probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Καερναρφόν vs Πένιμποντ FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Νίκη γηπεδούχου · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Καερναρφόν νίκη 45%,Ισοπαλία 27%,Πένιμποντ νίκη 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.90 · Άνω 2.5 55% · Current selection Άνω