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WAL Walesi Premier League · Mäng ·

Caernarfon vs Penybont

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Kodu form
Projected score2–12.90 expected goals
Võõras form
Koduvõit45%
Viik27%
Võõrsilvõit28%
Full model forecastKoduvõitTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callKoduvõit45% selection probability
Projected score2–1CaernarfonPenybont
Expected goals2.90Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Üle55% for the selected side
Mõlemad meeskonnad löövad väravaJah57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Alla 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValikTõenäosusÕiglane koefitsient
45% / 27% / 28%Mängu tulemusKoduvõit45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (27.4%)Topeltvõimalus1272.6%1.38
Üle 55% · Alla 45%Goals 2.5Üle55%1.82
Jah 57% · Ei 43%Mõlemad meeskonnad löövad väravaJah57%1.75
2.90 total expected goalsTäpne skoor2–1
9.4 expected match cornersNurgalöögidAlla 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Ei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityÕiglane koefitsient
Caernarfon win45%2.22
Viik27%3.70
Penybont win28%3.57

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Caernarfon1.74

Kodu share of expected goals 60%

Total expected goals2.90Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Üle 55% · Alla 45%

Penybont1.16

Võõras share of expected goals 40%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJah 57% · Ei 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Kodu-context · form sequence

Caernarfon

2.40pts / match
Mängitud5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punktid12

SignalKodu unbeaten 4/5

Võõras-context · form sequence

Penybont

1.00pts / match
Mängitud5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punktid5

SignalKodu matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Võit probability excluding draw
28%
12
Points from supplied form
5
1.74
Expected goals
1.16
CaernarfonPenybont
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Caernarfon signalKodu unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Penybont signalKodu matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Viik probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Caernarfon vs Penybont FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Koduvõit · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Caernarfon võit 45%,Viik 27%,Penybont võit 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.90 · Üle 2.5 55% · Current selection Üle