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WAL Wales Premier League · Maç ·

Caernarfon vs Penybont

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Ev Sahibi form
Projected score2–12.90 expected goals
Deplasman form
Ev sahibi kazanır47%
Beraberlik26%
Deplasman kazanır27%
Full model forecastEv sahibi kazanırTier A · 47% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callEv sahibi kazanır47% selection probability
Projected score2–1CaernarfonPenybont
Expected goals2.90Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Üst55% for the selected side
Karşılıklı gol varEvet57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Alt 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeçimOlasılıkAdil oran
47% / 26% / 27%Maç sonucuEv sahibi kazanır47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.1%)Çifte Şans1273.9%1.35
Üst 55% · Alt 45%Goals 2.5Üst55%1.82
Evet 57% · Hayır 43%Karşılıklı gol varEvet57%1.75
2.90 total expected goalsDoğru skor2–1
9.4 expected match cornersKornerlerAlt 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.1%Largest probability gapCaernarfon winDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomeTahminAdil oranReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Caernarfon win47%2.131.9146.7%+0.3 pp
Beraberlik26%3.853.4026.2%-0.2 pp
Penybont win27%3.703.3027%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Caernarfon1.74

Ev Sahibi share of expected goals 60%

Total expected goals2.90Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Üst 55% · Alt 45%

Penybont1.16

Deplasman share of expected goals 40%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitEvet 57% · Hayır 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Ev Sahibi-context · form sequence

Caernarfon

2.40pts / match
Oynanan5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Puan12

SignalEv Sahibi unbeaten 4/5

Deplasman-context · form sequence

Penybont

1.00pts / match
Oynanan5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Puan5

SignalEv Sahibi matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
47%
Kazanç probability excluding draw
27%
12
Points from supplied form
5
1.74
Expected goals
1.16
CaernarfonPenybont
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Caernarfon signalEv Sahibi unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Penybont signalEv Sahibi matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk53% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Beraberlik probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Caernarfon vs Penybont FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Ev sahibi kazanır · Projected score 2–1 · 47% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Caernarfon kazanç 47%,Beraberlik 26%,Penybont kazanç 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.90 · 2.5 Üst 55% · Current selection Üst