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JPN J1リーグ · Round 1 ·

セレッソ大阪 vs ファジアーノ岡山

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

ホーム form
Projected score2–13.01 expected goals
アウェイ form
ホーム勝利50%
引き分け27%
アウェイ勝利24%
Full model forecastホーム勝利Tier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callホーム勝利50% selection probability
Projected score2–1セレッソ大阪ファジアーノ岡山
Expected goals3.01Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5オーバー58% for the selected side
両チーム得点はい58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9オーバー 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

Market選択確率フェアオッズ
50% / 27% / 24%試合結果ホーム勝利50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes ファジアーノ岡山 win (23.5%)ダブルチャンス1X76.5%1.31
オーバー 58% · アンダー 42%Goals 2.5オーバー58%1.72
はい 58% · いいえ 42%両チーム得点はい58%1.72
3.01 total expected goals正確なスコア2–1
9.9 expected match cornersコーナーオーバー 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.2%Largest probability gapファジアーノ岡山 winDifference+0.5 pp
Outcome予想フェアオッズReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
セレッソ大阪 win50%2.001.9049.6%+0.4 pp
引き分け27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
ファジアーノ岡山 win24%4.174.0023.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

セレッソ大阪1.85

ホーム share of expected goals 61.5%

Total expected goals3.01Balanced

Dedicated goals model: オーバー 58% · アンダー 42%

ファジアーノ岡山1.16

アウェイ share of expected goals 38.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitはい 58% · いいえ 42%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

ホーム-context · form sequence

セレッソ大阪

2.60pts / match
試合数5Wins4Drawn1Losses0ポイント13

Signalホーム unbeaten 5/5

アウェイ-context · form sequence

ファジアーノ岡山

0.60pts / match
試合数5Wins1Drawn0Losses4ポイント3

Signalホーム matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
勝ち probability excluding draw
24%
13
Points from supplied form
3
1.85
Expected goals
1.16
セレッソ大阪ファジアーノ岡山
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01セレッソ大阪 signalホーム unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02ファジアーノ岡山 signalホーム matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. 引き分け probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

セレッソ大阪 vs ファジアーノ岡山 FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: ホーム勝利 · Projected score 2–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

セレッソ大阪 勝ち 50%,引き分け 27%,ファジアーノ岡山 勝ち 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.01 · オーバー 2.5 58% · Current selection オーバー