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JPN Япония - Джей Лига · Round 1 ·

Серезо Осака vs Фагиано Окаяма

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Домакин form
Projected score2–13.01 expected goals
Гост form
Победа за домакина50%
Равен27%
Победа за госта24%
Full model forecastПобеда за домакинаTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда за домакина50% selection probability
Projected score2–1Серезо ОсакаФагиано Окаяма
Expected goals3.01Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Над58% for the selected side
И двата отбора да отбележатДа58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Над 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketИзборВероятностСправедлив коефициент
50% / 27% / 24%Резултат от мачаПобеда за домакина50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Фагиано Окаяма win (23.5%)Двоен шанс1X76.5%1.31
Над 58% · Под 42%Goals 2.5Над58%1.72
Да 58% · Не 42%И двата отбора да отбележатДа58%1.72
3.01 total expected goalsТочен резултат2–1
9.9 expected match cornersКорнериНад 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.2%Largest probability gapФагиано Окаяма winDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomeПрогнозаСправедлив коефициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Серезо Осака win50%2.001.9049.6%+0.4 pp
Равен27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
Фагиано Окаяма win24%4.174.0023.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Серезо Осака1.85

Домакин share of expected goals 61.5%

Total expected goals3.01Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Над 58% · Под 42%

Фагиано Окаяма1.16

Гост share of expected goals 38.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitДа 58% · Не 42%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Домакин-context · form sequence

Серезо Осака

2.60pts / match
Изиграни5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Точки13

SignalДомакин unbeaten 5/5

Гост-context · form sequence

Фагиано Окаяма

0.60pts / match
Изиграни5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Точки3

SignalДомакин matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Печеливш probability excluding draw
24%
13
Points from supplied form
3
1.85
Expected goals
1.16
Серезо ОсакаФагиано Окаяма
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Серезо Осака signalДомакин unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Фагиано Окаяма signalДомакин matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Равен probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Серезо Осака vs Фагиано Окаяма FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа за домакина · Projected score 2–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Серезо Осака печеливш 50%,Равен 27%,Фагиано Окаяма печеливш 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.01 · Над 2.5 58% · Current selection Над