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JPN Japonia - J-League · Round 1 ·

Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score2–13.01 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde50%
Egal27%
Victorie oaspeți24%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde50% selection probability
Projected score2–1Cerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
Expected goals3.01Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Peste58% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăDa58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Peste 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
50% / 27% / 24%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fagiano Okayama win (23.5%)Șansă dublă1X76.5%1.31
Peste 58% · Sub 42%Goals 2.5Peste58%1.72
Da 58% · Nu 42%Ambele echipe marcheazăDa58%1.72
3.01 total expected goalsScor corect2–1
9.9 expected match cornersCornerePeste 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.2%Largest probability gapFagiano Okayama winDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Cerezo Osaka win50%2.001.9049.6%+0.4 pp
Egal27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
Fagiano Okayama win24%4.174.0023.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cerezo Osaka1.85

Gazde share of expected goals 61.5%

Total expected goals3.01Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 58% · Sub 42%

Fagiano Okayama1.16

Oaspeți share of expected goals 38.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitDa 58% · Nu 42%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Cerezo Osaka

2.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Puncte13

SignalGazde unbeaten 5/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Fagiano Okayama

0.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Puncte3

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Câștig probability excluding draw
24%
13
Points from supplied form
3
1.85
Expected goals
1.16
Cerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cerezo Osaka signalGazde unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fagiano Okayama signalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 2–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cerezo Osaka câștig 50%,Egal 27%,Fagiano Okayama câștig 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.01 · Peste 2.5 58% · Current selection Peste