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JPN Japan - J-League · Round 1 ·

Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–13.01 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger50%
Oavgjort27%
Bortaseger24%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger50% selection probability
Projected score2–1Cerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
Expected goals3.01Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Över58% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
50% / 27% / 24%MatchresultatHemmaseger50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fagiano Okayama win (23.5%)Dubbelchans1X76.5%1.31
Över 58% · Under 42%Goals 2.5Över58%1.72
Ja 58% · Nej 42%Båda lagen gör målJa58%1.72
3.01 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.9 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.2%Largest probability gapFagiano Okayama winDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Cerezo Osaka win50%2.001.9049.6%+0.4 pp
Oavgjort27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
Fagiano Okayama win24%4.174.0023.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cerezo Osaka1.85

Hemma share of expected goals 61.5%

Total expected goals3.01Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 58% · Under 42%

Fagiano Okayama1.16

Borta share of expected goals 38.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 58% · Nej 42%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Cerezo Osaka

2.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Poäng13

SignalHemma unbeaten 5/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Fagiano Okayama

0.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Poäng3

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
24%
13
Points from supplied form
3
1.85
Expected goals
1.16
Cerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cerezo Osaka signalHemma unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fagiano Okayama signalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cerezo Osaka vunnen 50%,Oavgjort 27%,Fagiano Okayama vunnen 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.01 · Över 2.5 58% · Current selection Över