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JPN Japan J-League · Round 1 ·

Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–13.01 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier50%
Uavgjort27%
Borteseier24%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier50% selection probability
Projected score2–1Cerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
Expected goals3.01Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over58% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa58% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
50% / 27% / 24%KampresultatHjemmeseier50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fagiano Okayama win (23.5%)Dobbel sjanse1X76.5%1.31
Over 58% · Under 42%Goals 2.5Over58%1.72
Ja 58% · Nei 42%Begge lag scorerJa58%1.72
3.01 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.9 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.2%Largest probability gapFagiano Okayama winDifference+0.5 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Cerezo Osaka win50%2.001.9049.6%+0.4 pp
Uavgjort27%3.703.5026.9%+0.1 pp
Fagiano Okayama win24%4.174.0023.5%+0.5 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cerezo Osaka1.85

Hjemme share of expected goals 61.5%

Total expected goals3.01Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 58% · Under 42%

Fagiano Okayama1.16

Borte share of expected goals 38.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 58% · Nei 42%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Cerezo Osaka

2.60pts / match
Spilt5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Poeng13

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Fagiano Okayama

0.60pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Poeng3

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
24%
13
Points from supplied form
3
1.85
Expected goals
1.16
Cerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cerezo Osaka signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fagiano Okayama signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 27%.

Match questions

Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cerezo Osaka vunnet 50%,Uavgjort 27%,Fagiano Okayama vunnet 24%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.01 · Over 2.5 58% · Current selection Over