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JPN Japan J-League · Kamp ·

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs JEF Utd Chiba

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.79 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier65%
Uavgjort21%
Borteseier14%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 65% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier65% selection probability
Projected score2–1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJEF Utd Chiba
Expected goals2.79Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over53% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei51% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
65% / 21% / 14%KampresultatHjemmeseier65%1.54
Derived from 1X2 · excludes JEF Utd Chiba win (14.5%)Dobbel sjanse1X85.5%1.17
Over 53% · Under 47%Goals 2.5Over53%1.89
Ja 49% · Nei 51%Begge lag scorerNei51%1.96
2.79 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.5 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.6%Largest probability gapJEF Utd Chiba winDifference-0.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Sanfrecce Hiroshima win65%1.541.4564.7%+0.3 pp
Uavgjort21%4.764.5020.9%+0.1 pp
JEF Utd Chiba win14%7.146.5014.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.95

Hjemme share of expected goals 69.9%

Total expected goals2.79Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 53% · Under 47%

JEF Utd Chiba0.84

Borte share of expected goals 30.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 49% · Nei 51%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

2.60pts / match
Spilt5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Poeng13

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Borte-context · form sequence

JEF Utd Chiba

0.80pts / match
Spilt5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Poeng4

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
65%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
14%
13
Points from supplied form
4
1.95
Expected goals
0.84
Sanfrecce HiroshimaJEF Utd Chiba
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Sanfrecce Hiroshima signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02JEF Utd Chiba signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk35% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs JEF Utd Chiba FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 65% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vunnet 65%,Uavgjort 21%,JEF Utd Chiba vunnet 14%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.79 · Over 2.5 53% · Current selection Over