Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
83% / 12% / 6%Match resultHome win83%1.20
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fortuna Sittard win (5.6%)Double chance1X94.4%1.06
Over 88% · Under 12%Goals 2.5Over88%1.14
Yes 65% · No 35%Both teams scoreYes65%1.54
5.06 total expected goalsCorrect score4–1——
11.3 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin3.9%Largest probability gapPSV winDifference+0.7 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
PSV win83%1.201.1782.3%+0.7 pp
Draw12%8.338.0012%0.0 pp
Fortuna Sittard win6%16.6717.005.7%+0.3 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 78.7%
Total expected goals5.06Open
Dedicated goals model: Over 88% · Under 12%
Away share of expected goals 21.3%
Projected score4–1BTTS splitYes 65% · No 35%Match profileOpen
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.00pts / matchPSV
WLDWW
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10
SignalHome unbeaten 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.20pts / matchFortuna Sittard
WLLWL
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
83%
Win probability excluding draw
6%10
Points from supplied form
63.98
Expected goals
1.08PSVFortuna Sittard
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Model and market agree on HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 12%.
Match questions
PSV vs Fortuna Sittard FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 4–1 · 83% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
PSV win 83%，Draw 12%，Fortuna Sittard win 6%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 5.06 · Over 2.5 88% · Current selection Over。