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NLD Tarile de Jos - Eredivisie · Meci ·

PSV vs Fortuna Sittard

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score4–15.06 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde83%
Egal12%
Victorie oaspeți6%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 83% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde83% selection probability
Projected score4–1PSVFortuna Sittard
Expected goals5.06Deschide match profile
Goals 2.5Peste88% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăDa65% for the selected side
Expected corners11.3Peste 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
83% / 12% / 6%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde83%1.20
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fortuna Sittard win (5.6%)Șansă dublă1X94.4%1.06
Peste 88% · Sub 12%Goals 2.5Peste88%1.14
Da 65% · Nu 35%Ambele echipe marcheazăDa65%1.54
5.06 total expected goalsScor corect4–1
11.3 expected match cornersCornerePeste 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin3.9%Largest probability gapPSV winDifference+0.7 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
PSV win83%1.201.1782.3%+0.7 pp
Egal12%8.338.0012%0.0 pp
Fortuna Sittard win6%16.6717.005.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

PSV3.98

Gazde share of expected goals 78.7%

Total expected goals5.06Deschide

Dedicated goals model: Peste 88% · Sub 12%

Fortuna Sittard1.08

Oaspeți share of expected goals 21.3%

Projected score4–1BTTS splitDa 65% · Nu 35%Match profileDeschide
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

PSV

2.00pts / match
Jucate5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Puncte10

SignalGazde unbeaten 4/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Fortuna Sittard

1.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Puncte6

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
83%
Câștig probability excluding draw
6%
10
Points from supplied form
6
3.98
Expected goals
1.08
PSVFortuna Sittard
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01PSV signalGazde unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fortuna Sittard signalGazde matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk17% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 12%.

Match questions

PSV vs Fortuna Sittard FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 4–1 · 83% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

PSV câștig 83%,Egal 12%,Fortuna Sittard câștig 6%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 5.06 · Peste 2.5 88% · Current selection Peste