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NIR Noord-Ierland - NIFL Premiership · Round 1 ·

Linfield vs Ballymena Utd

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–12.50 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst55%
Gelijkspel24%
Uitwinst21%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 55% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst55% selection probability
Projected score2–1LinfieldBallymena Utd
Expected goals2.50Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Onder54% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee60% for the selected side
Expected corners9.5Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
55% / 24% / 21%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst55%1.82
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Ballymena Utd win (21.1%)Dubbele Kans1X78.9%1.27
Boven 46% · Onder 54%Goals 2.5Onder54%1.85
Ja 40% · Nee 60%Beide teams scorenNee60%1.67
2.50 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
9.5 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.2%Largest probability gapLinfield winDifference+1.6 pp
OutcomeVoorspellingEerlijke oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Linfield win55%1.821.7053.4%+1.6 pp
Gelijkspel24%4.173.7024.5%-0.5 pp
Ballymena Utd win21%4.764.1022.1%-1.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Linfield1.87

Thuis share of expected goals 74.8%

Total expected goals2.50Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 46% · Onder 54%

Ballymena Utd0.63

Uit share of expected goals 25.2%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 40% · Nee 60%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Linfield

1.20pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punten6

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Ballymena Utd

1.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punten5

SignalThuis failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
55%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
21%
6
Points from supplied form
5
1.87
Expected goals
0.63
LinfieldBallymena Utd
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Linfield signalThuis matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ballymena Utd signalThuis failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk45% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Linfield vs Ballymena Utd FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 55% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Linfield gewonnen 55%,Gelijkspel 24%,Ballymena Utd gewonnen 21%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.50 · Boven 2.5 46% · Current selection Onder