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BGR Bulgaria First League · Kamp ·

Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.41 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier70%
Uavgjort19%
Borteseier11%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 70% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier70% selection probability
Projected score2–1Levski SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Expected goals2.41Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under57% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei65% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
70% / 19% / 11%KampresultatHjemmeseier70%1.43
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lokomotiv Plovdiv win (11%)Dobbel sjanse1X89%1.12
Over 43% · Under 57%Goals 2.5Under57%1.75
Ja 35% · Nei 65%Begge lag scorerNei65%1.54
2.41 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
8.9 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.3%Largest probability gapLevski Sofia winDifference+0.2 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Levski Sofia win70%1.431.3669.8%+0.2 pp
Uavgjort19%5.265.0019%0.0 pp
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win11%9.098.5011.2%-0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Levski Sofia1.89

Hjemme share of expected goals 78.4%

Total expected goals2.41Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 43% · Under 57%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.52

Borte share of expected goals 21.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 35% · Nei 65%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Levski Sofia

2.60pts / match
Spilt5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Poeng13

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poeng7

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
70%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
11%
13
Points from supplied form
7
1.89
Expected goals
0.52
Levski SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Levski Sofia signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lokomotiv Plovdiv signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk30% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 19%.

Match questions

Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 70% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Levski Sofia vunnet 70%,Uavgjort 19%,Lokomotiv Plovdiv vunnet 11%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.41 · Over 2.5 43% · Current selection Under