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BGR Bulgarie - Parva liga · Match ·

Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–12.41 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile70%
Nul19%
Victoire à l’extérieur11%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 70% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile70% selection probability
Projected score2–1Levski SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Expected goals2.41Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de57% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon65% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
70% / 19% / 11%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile70%1.43
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Lokomotiv Plovdiv win (11%)Double chance1X89%1.12
Plus de 43% · Moins de 57%Goals 2.5Moins de57%1.75
Oui 35% · Non 65%Les deux équipes marquentNon65%1.54
2.41 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
8.9 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.3%Largest probability gapLevski Sofia winDifference+0.2 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Levski Sofia win70%1.431.3669.8%+0.2 pp
Nul19%5.265.0019%0.0 pp
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win11%9.098.5011.2%-0.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Levski Sofia1.89

Domicile share of expected goals 78.4%

Total expected goals2.41Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 43% · Moins de 57%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.52

Extérieur share of expected goals 21.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 35% · Non 65%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Levski Sofia

2.60pts / match
Joués5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13

SignalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.40pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Points7

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
70%
Gagné probability excluding draw
11%
13
Points from supplied form
7
1.89
Expected goals
0.52
Levski SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Levski Sofia signalDomicile unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lokomotiv Plovdiv signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk30% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 19%.

Match questions

Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 70% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Levski Sofia victoire 70%,Nul 19%,Lokomotiv Plovdiv victoire 11%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.41 · Plus de 2.5 43% · Current selection Moins de