Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
44% / 29% / 27%Match resultHome win44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sparta Rotterdam win (27.4%)Double chance1X72.6%1.38
Over 49% · Under 51%Goals 2.5Under51%1.96
Yes 52% · No 48%Both teams scoreYes52%1.92
2.62 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1——
10.1 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5——
Probability view
Forecast probabilities and fair odds
No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.
OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Excelsior win44%2.27
Draw29%3.45
Sparta Rotterdam win27%3.70
Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 60.3%
Total expected goals2.62Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Over 49% · Under 51%
Away share of expected goals 39.7%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 52% · No 48%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.40pts / matchExcelsior
LWWWW
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12
SignalHome unbeaten 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.20pts / matchSparta Rotterdam
DWLDD
Played5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Points6
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
44%
Win probability excluding draw
27%12
Points from supplied form
61.58
Expected goals
1.04ExcelsiorSparta Rotterdam
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 29%.
Match questions
Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Excelsior win 44%，Draw 29%，Sparta Rotterdam win 27%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.62 · Over 2.5 49% · Current selection Under。