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NLD Hollandia - Eredivisie · Mérkőzés ·

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hazai form
Projected score2–12.62 expected goals
Vendég form
Hazai győzelem44%
Döntetlen29%
Vendég győzelem27%
Full model forecastHazai győzelemTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHazai győzelem44% selection probability
Projected score2–1ExcelsiorSparta Rotterdam
Expected goals2.62Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Alatt51% for the selected side
Mindkét csapat szerez góltIgen52% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Felett 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketVálasztásValószínűségValós odds
44% / 29% / 27%Mérkőzés eredményeHazai győzelem44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sparta Rotterdam win (27.4%)Dupla esély1X72.6%1.38
Felett 49% · Alatt 51%Goals 2.5Alatt51%1.96
Igen 52% · Nem 48%Mindkét csapat szerez góltIgen52%1.92
2.62 total expected goalsPontos eredmény2–1
10.1 expected match cornersSzögletekFelett 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nem snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityValós odds
Excelsior win44%2.27
Döntetlen29%3.45
Sparta Rotterdam win27%3.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Excelsior1.58

Hazai share of expected goals 60.3%

Total expected goals2.62Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Felett 49% · Alatt 51%

Sparta Rotterdam1.04

Vendég share of expected goals 39.7%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitIgen 52% · Nem 48%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hazai-context · form sequence

Excelsior

2.40pts / match
Lejátszott5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Pontok12

SignalHazai unbeaten 4/5

Vendég-context · form sequence

Sparta Rotterdam

1.20pts / match
Lejátszott5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Pontok6

SignalHazai matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Nyert probability excluding draw
27%
12
Points from supplied form
6
1.58
Expected goals
1.04
ExcelsiorSparta Rotterdam
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Excelsior signalHazai unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sparta Rotterdam signalHazai matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Döntetlen probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hazai győzelem · Projected score 2–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Excelsior nyer 44%,Döntetlen 29%,Sparta Rotterdam nyer 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.62 · 2.5 felett 49% · Current selection Alatt