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EST Estonia Esiliiga B · Round 21 ·

FA Kalev Tartu vs JK Viljandi Tulevik

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–24.16 expected goals
Away form
Home win49%
Draw20%
Away win31%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 49% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win49% selection probability
Projected score2–2FA Kalev TartuJK Viljandi Tulevik
Expected goals4.16Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over78% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes76% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
49% / 20% / 31%Match resultHome win49%2.04
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (20%)Double chance1280%1.25
Over 78% · Under 22%Goals 2.5Over78%1.28
Yes 76% · No 24%Both teams scoreYes76%1.32
4.16 total expected goalsCorrect score2–2
10.4 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.6%Largest probability gapDrawDifference+0.1 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FA Kalev Tartu win49%2.041.8349%0.0 pp
Draw20%5.004.5019.9%+0.1 pp
JK Viljandi Tulevik win31%3.232.8831.1%-0.1 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FA Kalev Tartu2.26

Home share of expected goals 54.3%

Total expected goals4.16Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 78% · Under 22%

JK Viljandi Tulevik1.90

Away share of expected goals 45.7%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitYes 76% · No 24%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

FA Kalev Tartu

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

JK Viljandi Tulevik

0.60pts / match
Played5Wins0Drawn3Losses2Points3

SignalAway clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
49%
Win probability excluding draw
31%
6
Points from supplied form
3
2.26
Expected goals
1.90
FA Kalev TartuJK Viljandi Tulevik
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FA Kalev Tartu signalHome matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02JK Viljandi Tulevik signalAway clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk51% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

FA Kalev Tartu vs JK Viljandi Tulevik FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–2 · 49% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FA Kalev Tartu win 49%,Draw 20%,JK Viljandi Tulevik win 31%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 4.16 · Over 2.5 78% · Current selection Over