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BRA Brazil Serie B · Partita ·

Cuiabá EC vs Fortaleza

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–11.49 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa39%
Pareggio33%
Vittoria ospite28%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned DRAW Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa39% selection probability
Projected score1–1Cuiabá ECFortaleza
Expected goals1.49Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto81% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo72% for the selected side
Expected corners9.9Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
39% / 33% / 28%Esito partitaVittoria casa39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fortaleza win (27.6%)Doppia Chance1X72.4%1.38
Sopra 19% · Sotto 81%Goals 2.5Sotto81%1.23
Sì 28% · No 72%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo72%1.39
1.49 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
9.9 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.5%Largest probability gapCuiabá EC winDifference-1.8 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Cuiabá EC win39%2.562.3040.8%-1.8 pp
Pareggio33%3.032.9032.4%+0.6 pp
Fortaleza win28%3.573.5026.8%+1.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cuiabá EC0.65

Casa share of expected goals 43.6%

Total expected goals1.49Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 19% · Sotto 81%

Fortaleza0.84

Trasferta share of expected goals 56.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 28% · No 72%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Cuiabá EC

1.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punti5

SignalCasa matches under 2.5: 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Fortaleza

1.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punti9

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
39%
Vinta probability excluding draw
28%
5
Points from supplied form
9
0.65
Expected goals
0.84
Cuiabá ECFortaleza
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned DRAW

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cuiabá EC signalCasa matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fortaleza signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 33%.

Match questions

Cuiabá EC vs Fortaleza FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cuiabá EC vinta 39%,Pareggio 33%,Fortaleza vinta 28%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.49 · Sopra 2.5 19% · Current selection Sotto