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NLD Pays-Bas - Eredivisie · Match ·

PEC Zwolle vs Ajax

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–23.11 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile24%
Nul26%
Victoire à l’extérieur50%
Full model forecastVictoire à l’extérieurTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à l’extérieur50% selection probability
Projected score1–2PEC ZwolleAjax
Expected goals3.11Ouverture match profile
Goals 2.5Plus de60% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentOui58% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Plus de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
24% / 26% / 50%Résultat du matchVictoire à l’extérieur50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes PEC Zwolle win (24.4%)Double chanceX275.6%1.32
Plus de 60% · Moins de 40%Goals 2.5Plus de60%1.67
Oui 58% · Non 42%Les deux équipes marquentOui58%1.72
3.11 total expected goalsScore exact1–2
10.1 expected match cornersCornersPlus de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
PEC Zwolle win24%4.17
Nul26%3.85
Ajax win50%2.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

PEC Zwolle1.11

Domicile share of expected goals 35.7%

Total expected goals3.11Ouverture

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 60% · Moins de 40%

Ajax2.00

Extérieur share of expected goals 64.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitOui 58% · Non 42%Match profileOuverture
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

PEC Zwolle

0.60pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Points3

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Ajax

2.60pts / match
Joués5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13

SignalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
24%
Gagné probability excluding draw
50%
3
Points from supplied form
13
1.11
Expected goals
2.00
PEC ZwolleAjax
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01PEC Zwolle signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ajax signalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

PEC Zwolle vs Ajax FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à l’extérieur · Projected score 1–2 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

PEC Zwolle victoire 24%,Nul 26%,Ajax victoire 50%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.11 · Plus de 2.5 60% · Current selection Plus de