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PEC Zwolle vs Ajax

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–23.11 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr24%
Uafgjort26%
Udesejr50%
Full model forecastUdesejrTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callUdesejr50% selection probability
Projected score1–2PEC ZwolleAjax
Expected goals3.11Åbn match profile
Goals 2.5Over60% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa58% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
24% / 26% / 50%KampresultatUdesejr50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes PEC Zwolle win (24.4%)DobbeltchanceX275.6%1.32
Over 60% · Under 40%Goals 2.5Over60%1.67
Ja 58% · Nej 42%Begge hold scorerJa58%1.72
3.11 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–2
10.1 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
PEC Zwolle win24%4.17
Uafgjort26%3.85
Ajax win50%2.00

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

PEC Zwolle1.11

Hjemme share of expected goals 35.7%

Total expected goals3.11Åbn

Dedicated goals model: Over 60% · Under 40%

Ajax2.00

Ude share of expected goals 64.3%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitJa 58% · Nej 42%Match profileÅbn
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

PEC Zwolle

0.60pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Point3

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Ajax

2.60pts / match
Spillet5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Point13

SignalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
24%
Vundet probability excluding draw
50%
3
Points from supplied form
13
1.11
Expected goals
2.00
PEC ZwolleAjax
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01PEC Zwolle signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ajax signalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

PEC Zwolle vs Ajax FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Udesejr · Projected score 1–2 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

PEC Zwolle vundet 24%,Uafgjort 26%,Ajax vundet 50%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.11 · Over 2.5 60% · Current selection Over