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ITA Italien - Serie A · Round 1 ·

Atalanta vs Sassuolo

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.41 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg45%
Unentschieden29%
Auswärtssieg26%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg45% selection probability
Projected score2–1AtalantaSassuolo
Expected goals2.41Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Unter57% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
45% / 29% / 26%SpielergebnisHeimsieg45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sassuolo win (25.8%)Doppelte Chance1X74.2%1.35
Über 43% · Unter 57%Goals 2.5Unter57%1.75
Ja 47% · Nein 53%Beide Teams treffenNein53%1.89
2.41 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
9.1 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
Atalanta win45%2.22
Unentschieden29%3.45
Sassuolo win26%3.85

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Atalanta1.50

Heim share of expected goals 62.2%

Total expected goals2.41Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 43% · Unter 57%

Sassuolo0.91

Auswärts share of expected goals 37.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 47% · Nein 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Atalanta

1.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punkte5

SignalHeim failed to score: 2/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Sassuolo

0.80pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punkte4

SignalAuswärts matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
26%
5
Points from supplied form
4
1.50
Expected goals
0.91
AtalantaSassuolo
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Atalanta signalHeim failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sassuolo signalAuswärts matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Atalanta vs Sassuolo FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Atalanta Gewinn 45%,Unentschieden 29%,Sassuolo Gewinn 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.41 · Über 2.5 43% · Current selection Unter