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ITA Italie - Série A · Round 1 ·

Atalanta vs Sassuolo

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–12.41 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile45%
Nul29%
Victoire à l’extérieur26%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile45% selection probability
Projected score2–1AtalantaSassuolo
Expected goals2.41Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de57% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
45% / 29% / 26%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sassuolo win (25.8%)Double chance1X74.2%1.35
Plus de 43% · Moins de 57%Goals 2.5Moins de57%1.75
Oui 47% · Non 53%Les deux équipes marquentNon53%1.89
2.41 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
9.1 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
Atalanta win45%2.22
Nul29%3.45
Sassuolo win26%3.85

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Atalanta1.50

Domicile share of expected goals 62.2%

Total expected goals2.41Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 43% · Moins de 57%

Sassuolo0.91

Extérieur share of expected goals 37.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 47% · Non 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

Atalanta

1.00pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Sassuolo

0.80pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalExtérieur matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Gagné probability excluding draw
26%
5
Points from supplied form
4
1.50
Expected goals
0.91
AtalantaSassuolo
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Atalanta signalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sassuolo signalExtérieur matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Atalanta vs Sassuolo FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Atalanta victoire 45%,Nul 29%,Sassuolo victoire 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.41 · Plus de 2.5 43% · Current selection Moins de