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ITA Italia - Serie A · Round 1 ·

Atalanta vs Sassuolo

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score2–12.41 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde45%
Egal29%
Victorie oaspeți26%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 45% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde45% selection probability
Projected score2–1AtalantaSassuolo
Expected goals2.41Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sub57% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
45% / 29% / 26%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde45%2.22
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sassuolo win (25.8%)Șansă dublă1X74.2%1.35
Peste 43% · Sub 57%Goals 2.5Sub57%1.75
Da 47% · Nu 53%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu53%1.89
2.41 total expected goalsScor corect2–1
9.1 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nu snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCotă corectă
Atalanta win45%2.22
Egal29%3.45
Sassuolo win26%3.85

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Atalanta1.50

Gazde share of expected goals 62.2%

Total expected goals2.41Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 43% · Sub 57%

Sassuolo0.91

Oaspeți share of expected goals 37.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitDa 47% · Nu 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Atalanta

1.00pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Puncte5

SignalGazde failed to score: 2/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Sassuolo

0.80pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Puncte4

SignalOaspeți matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
45%
Câștig probability excluding draw
26%
5
Points from supplied form
4
1.50
Expected goals
0.91
AtalantaSassuolo
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Atalanta signalGazde failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sassuolo signalOaspeți matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk55% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Atalanta vs Sassuolo FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 2–1 · 45% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Atalanta câștig 45%,Egal 29%,Sassuolo câștig 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.41 · Peste 2.5 43% · Current selection Sub