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ITA Italia - Serie A · Round 1 ·

Atalanta vs Sassuolo

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–12.41 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa61%
Pareggio23%
Vittoria ospite16%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 61% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa61% selection probability
Projected score2–1AtalantaSassuolo
Expected goals2.41Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto57% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.1Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
61% / 23% / 16%Esito partitaVittoria casa61%1.64
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Sassuolo win (16.2%)Doppia Chance1X83.8%1.19
Sopra 43% · Sotto 57%Goals 2.5Sotto57%1.75
Sì 47% · No 53%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo53%1.89
2.41 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–1
9.1 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.8%Largest probability gapAtalanta winDifference-0.8 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Atalanta win61%1.641.5361.8%-0.8 pp
Pareggio23%4.354.2022.5%+0.5 pp
Sassuolo win16%6.256.0015.7%+0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Atalanta1.50

Casa share of expected goals 62.2%

Total expected goals2.41Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 43% · Sotto 57%

Sassuolo0.91

Trasferta share of expected goals 37.8%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 47% · No 53%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Atalanta

1.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punti5

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Sassuolo

0.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punti4

SignalTrasferta matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
61%
Vinta probability excluding draw
16%
5
Points from supplied form
4
1.50
Expected goals
0.91
AtalantaSassuolo
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Atalanta signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sassuolo signalTrasferta matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk39% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Atalanta vs Sassuolo FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–1 · 61% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Atalanta vinta 61%,Pareggio 23%,Sassuolo vinta 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.41 · Sopra 2.5 43% · Current selection Sotto