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ESP Spanien - La Liga · Match ·

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score3–13.18 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger67%
Oavgjort21%
Bortaseger12%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 67% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger67% selection probability
Projected score3–1BarcelonaRayo Vallecano
Expected goals3.18Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över62% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
67% / 21% / 12%MatchresultatHemmaseger67%1.49
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Rayo Vallecano win (12.4%)Dubbelchans1X87.6%1.14
Över 62% · Under 38%Goals 2.5Över62%1.61
Ja 43% · Nej 57%Båda lagen gör målNej57%1.75
3.18 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat3–1
10.3 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Barcelona win67%1.49
Oavgjort21%4.76
Rayo Vallecano win12%8.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Barcelona2.56

Hemma share of expected goals 80.5%

Total expected goals3.18Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 62% · Under 38%

Rayo Vallecano0.62

Borta share of expected goals 19.5%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitJa 43% · Nej 57%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Barcelona

1.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Poäng9

SignalHemma won 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Rayo Vallecano

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
67%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
12%
9
Points from supplied form
7
2.56
Expected goals
0.62
BarcelonaRayo Vallecano
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Barcelona signalHemma won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Rayo Vallecano signalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk33% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 3–1 · 67% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Barcelona vunnen 67%,Oavgjort 21%,Rayo Vallecano vunnen 12%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.18 · Över 2.5 62% · Current selection Över