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ESP Spania - La Liga · Meci ·

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gazde form
Projected score3–13.18 expected goals
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde67%
Egal21%
Victorie oaspeți12%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 67% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde67% selection probability
Projected score3–1BarcelonaRayo Vallecano
Expected goals3.18Deschide match profile
Goals 2.5Peste62% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Peste 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
67% / 21% / 12%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde67%1.49
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Rayo Vallecano win (12.4%)Șansă dublă1X87.6%1.14
Peste 62% · Sub 38%Goals 2.5Peste62%1.61
Da 43% · Nu 57%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu57%1.75
3.18 total expected goalsScor corect3–1
10.3 expected match cornersCornerePeste 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nu snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCotă corectă
Barcelona win67%1.49
Egal21%4.76
Rayo Vallecano win12%8.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Barcelona2.56

Gazde share of expected goals 80.5%

Total expected goals3.18Deschide

Dedicated goals model: Peste 62% · Sub 38%

Rayo Vallecano0.62

Oaspeți share of expected goals 19.5%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitDa 43% · Nu 57%Match profileDeschide
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Barcelona

1.80pts / match
Jucate5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Puncte9

SignalGazde won 3/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Rayo Vallecano

1.40pts / match
Jucate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puncte7

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
67%
Câștig probability excluding draw
12%
9
Points from supplied form
7
2.56
Expected goals
0.62
BarcelonaRayo Vallecano
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Barcelona signalGazde won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Rayo Vallecano signalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk33% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 3–1 · 67% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Barcelona câștig 67%,Egal 21%,Rayo Vallecano câștig 12%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.18 · Peste 2.5 62% · Current selection Peste