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ESP España - La Liga · Partido ·

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score3–13.18 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local67%
Empate21%
Victoria visitante12%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 67% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local67% selection probability
Projected score3–1BarcelonaRayo Vallecano
Expected goals3.18Abrir match profile
Goals 2.5Más de62% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Más de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
67% / 21% / 12%Resultado del partidoVictoria local67%1.49
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Rayo Vallecano win (12.4%)Doble Oportunidad1X87.6%1.14
Más de 62% · Menos de 38%Goals 2.5Más de62%1.61
Sí 43% · No 57%Ambos equipos marcanNo57%1.75
3.18 total expected goalsMarcador exacto3–1
10.3 expected match cornersCórnersMás de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCuotas justas
Barcelona win67%1.49
Empate21%4.76
Rayo Vallecano win12%8.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Barcelona2.56

Local share of expected goals 80.5%

Total expected goals3.18Abrir

Dedicated goals model: Más de 62% · Menos de 38%

Rayo Vallecano0.62

Visitante share of expected goals 19.5%

Projected score3–1BTTS split 43% · No 57%Match profileAbrir
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Barcelona

1.80pts / match
Jugados5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Puntos9

SignalLocal won 3/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Rayo Vallecano

1.40pts / match
Jugados5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Puntos7

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
67%
Ganado probability excluding draw
12%
9
Points from supplied form
7
2.56
Expected goals
0.62
BarcelonaRayo Vallecano
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Barcelona signalLocal won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Rayo Vallecano signalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk33% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 3–1 · 67% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Barcelona ganada 67%,Empate 21%,Rayo Vallecano ganada 12%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.18 · Más de 2.5 62% · Current selection Más de