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ESP Spanien - La Liga · Kamp ·

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score3–13.18 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr67%
Uafgjort21%
Udesejr12%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 67% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr67% selection probability
Projected score3–1BarcelonaRayo Vallecano
Expected goals3.18Åbn match profile
Goals 2.5Over62% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej57% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
67% / 21% / 12%KampresultatHjemmesejr67%1.49
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Rayo Vallecano win (12.4%)Dobbeltchance1X87.6%1.14
Over 62% · Under 38%Goals 2.5Over62%1.61
Ja 43% · Nej 57%Begge hold scorerNej57%1.75
3.18 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat3–1
10.3 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Barcelona win67%1.49
Uafgjort21%4.76
Rayo Vallecano win12%8.33

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Barcelona2.56

Hjemme share of expected goals 80.5%

Total expected goals3.18Åbn

Dedicated goals model: Over 62% · Under 38%

Rayo Vallecano0.62

Ude share of expected goals 19.5%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitJa 43% · Nej 57%Match profileÅbn
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Barcelona

1.80pts / match
Spillet5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Point9

SignalHjemme won 3/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Rayo Vallecano

1.40pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Point7

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
67%
Vundet probability excluding draw
12%
9
Points from supplied form
7
2.56
Expected goals
0.62
BarcelonaRayo Vallecano
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Barcelona signalHjemme won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Rayo Vallecano signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk33% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 21%.

Match questions

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 3–1 · 67% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Barcelona vundet 67%,Uafgjort 21%,Rayo Vallecano vundet 12%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.18 · Over 2.5 62% · Current selection Over