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BGR Bulgarien - First League · Match ·

Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–23.35 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger36%
Oavgjort26%
Bortaseger37%
Full model forecastBortasegerTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBortaseger37% selection probability
Projected score2–2Dunav RuseLokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Expected goals3.35Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över65% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa66% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
36% / 26% / 37%MatchresultatBortaseger37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.5%)Dubbelchans1273.5%1.36
Över 65% · Under 35%Goals 2.5Över65%1.54
Ja 66% · Nej 34%Båda lagen gör målJa66%1.52
3.35 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–2
9.4 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
Dunav Ruse win36%2.78
Oavgjort26%3.85
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Dunav Ruse1.65

Hemma share of expected goals 49.3%

Total expected goals3.35Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 65% · Under 35%

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1.70

Borta share of expected goals 50.7%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitJa 66% · Nej 34%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Dunav Ruse

0.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Poäng3

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

0.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Poäng2

SignalHemma failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
37%
3
Points from supplied form
2
1.65
Expected goals
1.70
Dunav RuseLokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Dunav Ruse signalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia signalHemma failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Bortaseger · Projected score 2–2 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Dunav Ruse vunnen 36%,Oavgjort 26%,Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vunnen 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.35 · Över 2.5 65% · Current selection Över