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BGR Bulgaria - Parva liga · Partita ·

Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–23.35 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa36%
Pareggio26%
Vittoria ospite37%
Full model forecastVittoria ospiteTier A · 37% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria ospite37% selection probability
Projected score2–2Dunav RuseLokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Expected goals3.35Apertura match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra65% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano66% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
36% / 26% / 37%Esito partitaVittoria ospite37%2.70
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.5%)Doppia Chance1273.5%1.36
Sopra 65% · Sotto 35%Goals 2.5Sopra65%1.54
Sì 66% · No 34%Entrambe le squadre segnano66%1.52
3.35 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–2
9.4 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Dunav Ruse win36%2.78
Pareggio26%3.85
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win37%2.70

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Dunav Ruse1.65

Casa share of expected goals 49.3%

Total expected goals3.35Apertura

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 65% · Sotto 35%

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1.70

Trasferta share of expected goals 50.7%

Projected score2–2BTTS split 66% · No 34%Match profileApertura
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Dunav Ruse

0.60pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punti3

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

0.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Punti2

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
36%
Vinta probability excluding draw
37%
3
Points from supplied form
2
1.65
Expected goals
1.70
Dunav RuseLokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Dunav Ruse signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk63% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Dunav Ruse vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria ospite · Projected score 2–2 · 37% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Dunav Ruse vinta 36%,Pareggio 26%,Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vinta 37%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.35 · Sopra 2.5 65% · Current selection Sopra