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BGR Bulgaria - Parva liga · Partita ·

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score1–11.89 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa44%
Pareggio32%
Vittoria ospite23%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa44% selection probability
Projected score1–1Arda KardzhaliBotev Vratsa
Expected goals1.89Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Sotto71% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo65% for the selected side
Expected corners8.4Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
44% / 32% / 23%Esito partitaVittoria casa44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Botev Vratsa win (23.4%)Doppia Chance1X76.6%1.31
Sopra 29% · Sotto 71%Goals 2.5Sotto71%1.41
Sì 35% · No 65%Entrambe le squadre segnanoNo65%1.54
1.89 total expected goalsRisultato esatto1–1
8.4 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityQuote eque
Arda Kardzhali win44%2.27
Pareggio32%3.13
Botev Vratsa win23%4.35

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Arda Kardzhali1.23

Casa share of expected goals 65.1%

Total expected goals1.89Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 29% · Sotto 71%

Botev Vratsa0.66

Trasferta share of expected goals 34.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 35% · No 65%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Arda Kardzhali

2.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punti12

SignalCasa unbeaten 4/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Botev Vratsa

0.60pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punti3

SignalCasa clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Vinta probability excluding draw
23%
12
Points from supplied form
3
1.23
Expected goals
0.66
Arda KardzhaliBotev Vratsa
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Arda Kardzhali signalCasa unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Botev Vratsa signalCasa clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Arda Kardzhali vinta 44%,Pareggio 32%,Botev Vratsa vinta 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.89 · Sopra 2.5 29% · Current selection Sotto