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BGR Bulgarije - Eerste divisie · Wedstrijd ·

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–11.89 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst44%
Gelijkspel32%
Uitwinst23%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst44% selection probability
Projected score1–1Arda KardzhaliBotev Vratsa
Expected goals1.89Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Onder71% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee65% for the selected side
Expected corners8.4Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
44% / 32% / 23%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Botev Vratsa win (23.4%)Dubbele Kans1X76.6%1.31
Boven 29% · Onder 71%Goals 2.5Onder71%1.41
Ja 35% · Nee 65%Beide teams scorenNee65%1.54
1.89 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
8.4 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Arda Kardzhali win44%2.27
Gelijkspel32%3.13
Botev Vratsa win23%4.35

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Arda Kardzhali1.23

Thuis share of expected goals 65.1%

Total expected goals1.89Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Boven 29% · Onder 71%

Botev Vratsa0.66

Uit share of expected goals 34.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 35% · Nee 65%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Arda Kardzhali

2.40pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Punten12

SignalThuis unbeaten 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Botev Vratsa

0.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Punten3

SignalThuis clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
23%
12
Points from supplied form
3
1.23
Expected goals
0.66
Arda KardzhaliBotev Vratsa
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Arda Kardzhali signalThuis unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Botev Vratsa signalThuis clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Arda Kardzhali gewonnen 44%,Gelijkspel 32%,Botev Vratsa gewonnen 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.89 · Boven 2.5 29% · Current selection Onder