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BGR Болгария - Первая лига · Матч ·

Арда Кырджали vs Ботев Враца

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score1–11.89 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев44%
Ничья32%
Победа гостей23%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев44% selection probability
Projected score1–1Арда КырджалиБотев Враца
Expected goals1.89Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше71% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет65% for the selected side
Expected corners8.4Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
44% / 32% / 23%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Ботев Враца win (23.4%)Двойной шанс1X76.6%1.31
Больше 29% · Меньше 71%Goals 2.5Меньше71%1.41
Да 35% · Нет 65%Обе забьютНет65%1.54
1.89 total expected goalsТочный счёт1–1
8.4 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Нет snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityСправедливый коэффициент
Арда Кырджали win44%2.27
Ничья32%3.13
Ботев Враца win23%4.35

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Арда Кырджали1.23

Хозяева share of expected goals 65.1%

Total expected goals1.89Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Больше 29% · Меньше 71%

Ботев Враца0.66

Гости share of expected goals 34.9%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 35% · Нет 65%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Арда Кырджали

2.40pts / match
Сыграно5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Баллы12

SignalХозяева unbeaten 4/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Ботев Враца

0.60pts / match
Сыграно5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Баллы3

SignalХозяева clean sheets: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
23%
12
Points from supplied form
3
1.23
Expected goals
0.66
Арда КырджалиБотев Враца
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Арда Кырджали signalХозяева unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ботев Враца signalХозяева clean sheets: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

Арда Кырджали vs Ботев Враца FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 1–1 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Арда Кырджали выигрыш 44%,Ничья 32%,Ботев Враца выигрыш 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.89 · ТБ 2.5 29% · Current selection Меньше