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BGR Болгария - Первая лига · Матч ·

Спартак Варна vs Лудогорец Разград

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score1–22.85 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев14%
Ничья23%
Победа гостей62%
Full model forecastПобеда гостейTier A · 62% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда гостей62% selection probability
Projected score1–2Спартак ВарнаЛудогорец Разград
Expected goals2.85Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Больше54% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет58% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
14% / 23% / 62%Исход матчаПобеда гостей62%1.61
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Спартак Варна win (14.3%)Двойной шансX285.7%1.17
Больше 54% · Меньше 46%Goals 2.5Больше54%1.85
Да 42% · Нет 58%Обе забьютНет58%1.72
2.85 total expected goalsТочный счёт1–2
8.9 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Нет snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityСправедливый коэффициент
Спартак Варна win14%7.14
Ничья23%4.35
Лудогорец Разград win62%1.61

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Спартак Варна0.62

Хозяева share of expected goals 21.8%

Total expected goals2.85Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Больше 54% · Меньше 46%

Лудогорец Разград2.23

Гости share of expected goals 78.2%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitДа 42% · Нет 58%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Спартак Варна

1.20pts / match
Сыграно5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Баллы6

SignalХозяева matches over 2.5: 3/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Лудогорец Разград

2.20pts / match
Сыграно5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Баллы11

SignalХозяева clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
14%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
62%
6
Points from supplied form
11
0.62
Expected goals
2.23
Спартак ВарнаЛудогорец Разград
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Спартак Варна signalХозяева matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Лудогорец Разград signalХозяева clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk38% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Спартак Варна vs Лудогорец Разград FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа гостей · Projected score 1–2 · 62% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Спартак Варна выигрыш 14%,Ничья 23%,Лудогорец Разград выигрыш 62%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.85 · ТБ 2.5 54% · Current selection Больше