MatchFormula Find a match
Menu
UTC+8
Time zoneAsia/Shanghai
English
BGR Bulgaria First League · Fixture ·

Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–22.85 expected goals
Away form
Home win14%
Draw23%
Away win62%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 62% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win62% selection probability
Projected score1–2Spartak VarnaLudogorets Razgrad
Expected goals2.85Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Over54% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo58% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
14% / 23% / 62%Match resultAway win62%1.61
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Spartak Varna win (14.3%)Double chanceX285.7%1.17
Over 54% · Under 46%Goals 2.5Over54%1.85
Yes 42% · No 58%Both teams scoreNo58%1.72
2.85 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
8.9 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Spartak Varna win14%7.14
Draw23%4.35
Ludogorets Razgrad win62%1.61

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Spartak Varna0.62

Home share of expected goals 21.8%

Total expected goals2.85Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 54% · Under 46%

Ludogorets Razgrad2.23

Away share of expected goals 78.2%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 42% · No 58%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Spartak Varna

1.20pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Away-context · form sequence

Ludogorets Razgrad

2.20pts / match
Played5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Points11

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
14%
Win probability excluding draw
62%
6
Points from supplied form
11
0.62
Expected goals
2.23
Spartak VarnaLudogorets Razgrad
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Spartak Varna signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ludogorets Razgrad signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk38% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 62% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Spartak Varna win 14%,Draw 23%,Ludogorets Razgrad win 62%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.85 · Over 2.5 54% · Current selection Over