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BGR Болгария - Первая лига · Матч ·

ЦСКА София vs Черно Море Варна

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score2–12.48 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев57%
Ничья26%
Победа гостей17%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 57% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев57% selection probability
Projected score2–1ЦСКА СофияЧерно Море Варна
Expected goals2.48Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше55% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет61% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
57% / 26% / 17%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Черно Море Варна win (16.6%)Двойной шанс1X83.4%1.20
Больше 45% · Меньше 55%Goals 2.5Меньше55%1.82
Да 39% · Нет 61%Обе забьютНет61%1.64
2.48 total expected goalsТочный счёт2–1
8.9 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Нет snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityСправедливый коэффициент
ЦСКА София win57%1.75
Ничья26%3.85
Черно Море Варна win17%5.88

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

ЦСКА София1.87

Хозяева share of expected goals 75.4%

Total expected goals2.48Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Больше 45% · Меньше 55%

Черно Море Варна0.61

Гости share of expected goals 24.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitДа 39% · Нет 61%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

ЦСКА София

1.80pts / match
Сыграно5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Баллы9

SignalХозяева won 3/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Черно Море Варна

0.60pts / match
Сыграно5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Баллы3

SignalХозяева matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
17%
9
Points from supplied form
3
1.87
Expected goals
0.61
ЦСКА СофияЧерно Море Варна
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01ЦСКА София signalХозяева won 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Черно Море Варна signalХозяева matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

ЦСКА София vs Черно Море Варна FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 2–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

ЦСКА София выигрыш 57%,Ничья 26%,Черно Море Варна выигрыш 17%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.48 · ТБ 2.5 45% · Current selection Меньше